OK.. There seems to be a lot of confusion about how many votes are left and such. One thing we know for real, however, are the margins. So what I will do below is to plot the real margin vs assumed number of votes left.
The narrowing of the lead has been remarkably linear in PA (I went in to the reasons why in the previous post), and piecewise linear (it transitioned to a slightly smaller slope on Thursday and back on track on Friday) in GA.
Pennsylvania
Assuming 340375 votes were left when the margin was 97900
Thursday
10:50 pm Biden is down by 26132 votes and needs to win 57.0 percent of the remaining 185551 votes.
Friday
8:22 am Biden is down by 18049 votes and needs to win 55.3 percent of the remaining 169238 votes
8:57 am Biden leads by 5587 votes and needs to win 48.0 percent of the remaining 138082 votes
6:00 pm Biden leads by 14541 votes and needs to win 43.2 percent of the remaining 106154 votes
9:50 pm Biden leads by 27130 votes and needs to win 33.3 percent of the remaining 81331 votes
Georgia
Thursday
11:12 pm Biden is down by 1805 votes and needs to win 57.1 percent of the remaining 12781 votes
Friday
08:22 am Biden leads by 1097 votes and needs to win 43.9 percent of the remaining 8941 votes
03:30 pm Biden leads by 1590 votes and needs to win 39.8 percent of the remaining 7816 votes
Saturday
07:00 pm Biden leads by 9160 votes (** MY FINAL UPDATE **)
Arizona
Arizona has been up and down a bit, but Trump has been consistently underperforming by 5 percent and seems set to run out of votes. I used a few different models (including Gaussian process-based ones with uncertainty, but I will keep it simple and real here).
Friday
10:00 pm Biden leads by 29861 votes and Trump needs to win 58.6 percent of the remaining 172944 votes
