There appears to be no shortage of people (within the country and elsewhere) expressing their opinions on "America's decline". Quite undeniably, over the last few decades, the "gap" between the US and the rest of the world has narrowed and in fact, some small European countries have a better standard of living on average and the US, like every other country on earth, faces major challenges. But that doesn't mean one has to put up with all the drivel that is shoved down the collective throats of the public (through the internets and otherwise). Most people who want to get heard go to the extremes.. quoting selective numbers and most importantly, taking partial derivatives - i.e. projecting the future while assuming everything else is fixed (or at best, linearly extrapolated). What is perhaps most frustrating is that when some national problems are highlighted, it is seldom done in the global context. The next time you hear about NASA's budget "woes", be mindful of the fact that if anything, the spending is not going down on a year-to-year basis and it is still 3x of ESA's, 12x of China's and 7x of Japan's (granted, things are accounted differently elsewhere and PPP matters, but still). When comparisons are indeed made and intricate details of America's problems are discussed, typically not enough appreciation is shown of the problems that other countries face. You just can't operate in isolation in a globalized world. Also, just focusing on GDP growth numbers of say, some emerging nations and assuming that things will continue the way they are just doesn't cut it.
As an example, consider the status of manufacturing: Contrary to what the average Joe may infer from all the talk, the US is still No.1 in manufacturing output and outstrips China by 30% (alright, let's not get into the nitty gritty of the accounting). Granted, Chinese manufacturing has more than doubled in the last 10 years while the growth in the US has been modest (while jobs may indeed have been lost, productivity is up and US manufacturing output actually increased by half a trillion dollars the past decade! if you believe some reports), but it is still stupid to ignore numbers and the "we don't make anything here anymore" argument is plain dumb. Especially when you are No. 1 and No. 2 is experiencing a steep rise in worker wages and discontent and then there is the matter of logistics and rising transportation costs (see, I can take partial derivatives too). Besides, it looks like US manufacturing is making a comeback of sorts recently (this might or might not last, but then I am allowed to linearly extrapolate, right?). This obviously doesn't mean China won't overtake the US in manufacturing (they definitely will), but it is idiotic to downplay 18% of global manufacturing output from 5% of it's citizens in a highly globalized world.
So what do I think about the decline and all that? Let's start with areas where I think the US will have clear advantages in the foreseeable future.
1. Innovation: Without any doubt, the US has the best environment for high impact innovation, fueled by some of the best companies, universities and research labs in the world. The role of the federal government in funding research at all levels is still very good. The next time you hear about "not enough research funding" , you should consider it in relation to numbers in the rest of the world, just like NASA's funding, even in face of "but.. but... as a % of GDP..."
2. Universities: America has the best universities in the world whichever way you look at them and while there are excellent universities around the world, nothing outside of a 100 mile radius of London comes close to matching the overall excellence of US universities. Ranking universities is far from a scientific way of judging them (every ranking methodology has unfair components and doesn't translate well across cultures), but one can't ignore every single list which tends to be overwhelmingly dominated by
American universities, what with every one of the top 5
engineering schools in the world being local as well. The story is more or less similar in the life and physical sciences and this continues to hold even if you give the
rest of the world an advantage by not factoring in the amazing breadth of activities that American universities offer. Compared to anywhere else in the world, these universities are very diverse, continue to attract top level talent from everywhere and many of them have paved a path towards sustainability by accumulating endowments that run into the billions of $. No less than 65 universities have endowments of more than a billion dollars and many top schools like Harvard, Yale and Stanford have made tuition free for families earning less than $100K/year.
3. Unbounded opportunities "for all": Elon Musk, the SpaceX/Tesla CEO said he moved to the US because "It is where great things are possible". While that sounds a bit cheesy, I'd like to see if any other country would trust a commercial company to provide access to space. This is the wrong blog to speculate whether this is a great idea (I am just pointing to the existence of the opportunity), but quite amazingly, fellow billionaires like Jeff Bezos, Paul Allen and Richard Branson (honorary American FTW) are getting into the act as well at various levels. I think that if you are ambitious and/or talented and/or hardworking, there are no limits to growth, regardless of who you are or where you are from. You might find exceptions, but relatively speaking, this is as good as it gets. While you can also point out amazing stories of achievement and success anywhere in the world, nowhere else is it more prevalent or "easier" or more ingrained in culture or is a daring idea better accepted. If you're an immigrant (especially from the developing world), you don't even need to read this section - the (relative) absence of a glass ceiling compared to that in other countries is striking. Enough has been written about Silicon valley, but more impressive is the opportunities for millions in more mundane professions (not to mention university professors whose labs resemble corporations).
4. Stability: The word on the street is about how America has changed in the last 10 years or since the 70s. While it is true in some sense, it is absolutely dwarfed by changes the rest of the world has seen - Late 80s Europe anyone? Creation of the Euro? Yearly changes in Asia?. The predictability brought about by stability, abundant natural resources, the world's reserve currency and great American institutions (no I am not just talking about tailgating in college football) has enormous implications. So what happened after the S&P downgrade of the US government's credit rating? Foreigners just keep buying more US treasury bonds. I am not saying that the government won't be in big trouble - I am merely saying that the tendency of the media (and others) to make a meal out of all kinds of stuff needs to be filtered.
5. Energy and resources: No other country (other than it's cold war rival and northern neighbor perhaps) has more energy resources and while reliance on foreign oil is not a completely trivial issue, the alternatives at hand are more than sufficient to overcome any foreseeable challenge. While there is obviously a need for a coherent energy policy (and more public awareness), America's energy problems aren't that serious compared to almost everyone else. Almost the same situation for other natural resources. Big emerging economies are in much much bigger trouble as are many advanced economies in this regard.
So do all these positives trump the rise of the rest and such? No and Yes - the complete answer lies in stratification. I am going to throw some numbers around that are open to the scrutiny of +/- percentage points, but are otherwise solid (I am so sure of them just like the hackjobs on TV). I think that the top 15% (by income) of Americans live more comfortably than the top 15% in other significant countries, aided by access to a great (for the most part) educational system, healthcare and materialistic needs. I don't see this changing at least for one more generation because of some of things I mentioned before - Enormous intellectual capital and institutions exist, companies will continue to innovate, the best universities will get better, more high-skilled jobs will be created, etc. Even in times of anemic economic growth, things just keep getting better for this sector of the population. I do think that even if most of the middle class gets left out, American innovation will produce things that people will buy - at home and abroad. This is not to say that the government won't be in a lot of trouble and make things difficult for this section of the population. Debt is around 100% of GDP (not too unusual for many emerging and advanced economies) and unless some kind of health care reform is made, costs will spiral. But again, more than half the government debt resides within American shores.
For the bottom 30%, the picture looks troublesome. With the declining quality of the public school system (I don't believe that international math/reading scores mean much because of preparation. note: Shanghai, China is at the top, but that, by itself represents < 1% of China) but still, the average public school is not doing well despite relatively generous spending, cost of higher education (while there exist excellent opportunities and financial aid for high achievers, the *average* student from a low income family will struggle) access to health care (no need to say anything here), social mobility of the poor is now worse than that in Europe. This is incredible because Europe has always been seen as "stale" and America as "dynamic". This is just a statement that on *average* it has gotten harder to move up the ladder - the occasional rags to riches story is no worse here than elsewhere. I have a hard time believing that things won't get worse for this sector of the population as public funds are being stretched. A radical change in thinking has to come about in terms of how Americans think about equality.
That leaves out the rest of the middle class - much of which still has access to good opportunities (but with less of a safety net, not necessarily better compared to the rest of the developed world) and a relatively safe and predictable society, but things won't be as straightforward as they once were. This sector will be most affected by globalization and the catching up - The innovation that the "Top 15%" create won't necessarily help as jobs with a lower degree of specialization could be outsourced to cheaper places or at least perfomed more efficiently in other countries. The key then, would be to improve access to quality education so that this sector can compete better. I know that it is not a zero sum game, but for the average American to compete with say, the top 20% of Indians and Chinese means dealing with half a billion "hungry" and capable people.
I think that for the foreseeable future, America will be the best place for highly talented/skilled people from all over the world. Let me loosely say that if you are a citizen of the rest of the world and have decent higher education (in science or engineering, preferably) and you're looked at as possessing middling levels of talent and motivation, your best bet is still the US because of the relative ease of getting a solid job, good prospects for growth and livelihood. If you are near the highest end of the spectrum i.e., incredibly talented or perhaps possessed like Elon Musk, again, the US is the place to be. For people in other parts of the spectrum, America is still a great option, but not perhaps necessarily as compelling as before. Many emerging and advanced countries have definitely filled this void, and comparable opportunities do exist, perhaps not in proportionately large numbers.
On a more solemn note, however, if it is business as usual, stratification will continue unabated and more and more of the American middle class will find the going harder and the AVERAGE quality of life won't be better than the rest of the developed world. Given there isn't much of a safety net (in terms of health and other government benefits) and there might never be, taking advantage of the uniqueness of the land of opportunity lies in improved access to opportunities.
It is not the 60's anymoooore*. On average, America is becoming average, and while there do exist great opportunities for mobility from the middle class to the upper middle class and beyond, sadly the same can't be said about moving into the middle class. For a good section of the population, being in the greatest country in the world doesn't mean a whole lot. For things to change, the two most important (by a country mile) are :
- Access to good education
- Containing spiraling health care costs
This will help the average American to be competitive and the government from going broke. Obvious, but hey..
* Said to the tune of that hard ass general in Avatar
ps: A good friend of mine usually tells me that there are two kinds of people in the world: those who group people and those who don't. I hate grouping people (and some stuff in this post sounds snobbish), but I find that it is otherwise difficult to make an argument. Perhaps I can find better ways of doing this and rely less on blogetic license in making sweeping statements if I didn't write it in one shot.
pps: I am obviously not suggesting that it is a great idea for YOU to pack up and leave to/from the US. I am talking about generic situations.