11 pm
12 am
I started tracking and projecting MI and PA. The simple math is that Biden is winning a higher fraction of the early vote than Trump is winning election day votes... and there are more Early votes than election day votes. When X% of the total vote has been counted, I compare it to the total early vote (from electproject.github.io) and the fraction of the early vote counted thus far, and I ran the numbers assuming the % early and % election day numbers hold up for each candidate. This is assuming that reporting is accurate (and it ignores 3rd party candidates, so there will be +/- 2% error, but that's the margin anyway)
2 am
MI: 64% done ; Projection: Biden +311k
PA: 69% done : Projection; Biden +178k
2:25 am
MI: 66 % done ; Projection: Biden + 355k
PA: 72 % done ; Lead: Trump: + 696k ; Projection: Biden + 250k
3:07 am
MI: 71% done ; Lead: Trump + 295k; Projection: Biden + 400k
PA: 74% done ; Lead: Trump +673k ; Projection: Biden +300k
7:07 am
MI: 84% done ; Lead: Trump + 57k; Projection: Biden +690k
PA: 75% done ; Lead: Trump + 620k ; Projection: Biden +378k
9:12 am
MI: 89% done: Lead: Biden + 7k; Projection: Biden +738k
10:57 am
PA: 78% done: Lead: Trump +542k; Projection: Biden + 400k
11:20 am
MI: 92% done: Lead: Biden + 33k; Projection: Biden + 720k
4:30 pm
MI: 97% done: Lead: Biden + 61k; Projection: Biden + 760k
PA: 84% done: Lead: Trump + 320k; Projection: Biden + 720k
Note: As we get closer to the end, my numbers will be inaccurate because I am rounding out noise, ignoring third party candidates, etc.. and assuming whatever the number of votes NYT says is left is actually left. Also, neither PA nor MI seem to be reporting absentee ballots accurately. This will be fixed when we get actual numbers from the SOS
What is most important, however, is to see how Trump's lead is shrinking. When PA was 72% done, he had a 696k lead. When PA is 84% done, he had a 320k lead. Linear extrapolation tells us that Biden will come out on top. While there is no strict reason for this to hold, we know for sure that first and second derivatives don't lie, and that's why continuous monitoring is important. Besides, most of the remaining votes are left in predictable places.
============================
Predictions going into Election Day :
Nate Silver has the blue wall (MN/MI/WI) @ 96%/95%/94% for Biden respectively. That gets Biden to 253.
He needs 17 from the following
----small lead----
NV 6 (87% by Nate Silver, +6 ahead in polls)
PA 20 (87%, +5)
-----borderline------
AZ 11 (70%, + 3)
------polling margin-----
FL 29 (68%)
NC 15 (65%)
In my opinion, Biden only has as much of a shot at winning GA as he has of losing WI, so let's not worry about the likes of GA, IA, etc..
I have no confidence for Biden in FL, and i think Trump will win NC. PA will not finish counting until Friday. So the path to victory is NV+AZ = 17. Corrected for my gut, I'll give Biden a 70% chance of winning tomorrow.
