Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Review / Summary of "India Grows at Night" by Gurucharan Das [Draft post]

This book is, in some ways, an extension of the author's (a Harvard grad and former CEO of Procter & Gamble India) fabulous first book "India Unbound," (2002) which is an account of the political, economic and sometimes social evolution of India from the years before independence to the turn of the present century. "India Unbound" was rather fascinating because it also serves - in part - as an autobiography as the material is presented through the viewing glasses of an executive who "suffered through" socialism and is ultimately jubilant about the fruits of liberalization and "capitalism". In that book, he basically asks bureaucracy to get out of the way.  

By the time he starts writing "India Grows at night" (2012), he admits to have had a change of heart and has transformed his views from from libertarian to "classic liberal."  Here, he calls for a "limited" rather than a "minimalist" state. This line of thought is reflected heavily in this book. In fact, he says he didn't call the book "India grows at night while the government sleeps" because he now realizes that the government has a first order role to play in economic development (by ensuring infrastructure, law and order, regulatory reform, etc) and any growth "in spite of the government" will be flawed and unsustainable. This is pretty much what got me hooked on to the book because I have been saying similar things for the past 5 years, even when the economy was seemingly red-hot (2007-2010). My understanding has always been that that the Indian economy has been picking low hanging fruit and we'd soon hit a wall unless the government gets serious about maaaany things.

He begins the book by quoting Fukuyama (who I didn't realize is at Stanford) that "A successful liberal democracy should have three things : A strong authority to allow quick and decisive action; a transparent rule of the law to ensure that the action is legitimate; and it is accountable to the people." The book points out India's failure in all three categories (although he does acknowledge limited success in some aspects), some historical reasoning behind the state-of-affairs and also a few ideas on the types of economic and more importantly institutional reform that will be required to get out of the rut. I agree - for the most part - with his historical views on why India has traditionally had a "weak state" and why law and order has always been an issue. Such discussions (and second-guessing history) aren't just of academic interest because they define India at the present time. As an example, consider the first question Egyptians asked him when he was speaking in Tahrir square: "How do you keep generals out of politics?" Well.. we take it for granted and there is no easy answer to this question, but sustaining a peaceful transfer of power *every single time* in a HUGE, noisy and largely poor country does give us something to think about in historical terms.

The last part of the book focuses on what he thinks should be the role of a new political party as he appears to be pretty much fed up with the "grievance politics" (i.e., making the voters a victim) of the major parties and the short-sightedness of the regional ones and opines that none of the existing parties are capable of reforming out-dated government institutions. He brings up Rajaji's Swatantra party as a role model for liberal politics, which is largely justified but is sure to be off-putting to some because of the brilliant founder's (rare but) controversial schemes (hereditary education, for one). I do agree with his assessment, however, that the Swatantra party was definitely ahead of its times and that some of its core principles will have much value.
As with most books that present socio-political commentaries, I think that the true worth of this book is not in the general idea but rather the anecdotes that get strewn around.  Now that the preamble is out of the way, here is a short summary of the book. I must say that because of old age and a lack of contiguous chunks of quality time, I have resorted to the habit of taking down notes while reading books, so here goes my unedited notes:

================ NOTES / SUMMARY =====================

He contrasts India's development from ancient times where, unlike China's intrusive and many times despotic rulers who "divested people of their property and rights," the ordinary person was defined by "the village, caste and the joint family," much removed from the king who didn't affect daily life. Further, unlike Europe, "diverse social groups in India had their own laws and customs" which preceded the state and that the duty of the ruler was just to "protect the respective customs and laws of this self-regulating order." Thus he makes the case that India has always had a weak state and a strong society (in contrast to China's strong state and weak society) and that "the solid society helped to check state power whereas the feeble state didn't return the favor". Thus caste, religion and kinship restricted the freedom of many ordinary people.

While he argues that the rule of the law is an "old idea in the west" and existed ever since Aristotle wrote 'the law should govern'," he also acknowledges that law originated in religion everywhere, "western juridicial systems were based on the concept of legality whereas Indian law was based on authority" (or a code of conduct) that was based on sacred texts but "custom often prevailed over the text" when administering justice. He thus claims that there has historically been arbitrariness in the application of justice in India until the British "removed uncertainty through codification," though not to the desired level of success. He then goes to talk about the pathetic state of affairs in delivering justice in India and brings up the terrible judicial delays and points out the well-known situation of cases taking 10, 20 or 30 years to resolve. Failure to effectively (and quickly) enforce the rule of the law brings about "unpredictability" (for instance, in the mind of investors) and "crony captialism" (in real estate, mining, power sector etc.). So the weakness in enforcing the law is a key impediment to the success of Indian democracy. There is a nice little section about the tension betwen the rational 'rule of the law' and the parochial 'rule of life' which I liked, but this discussion is largely academic and distracting to the main text.

He defines a strong liberal state as one "that is not an intrusive or meddling one, but rather one that has an invisible touch over its citizens." He distinguishes this from strong, unaccountable and opaque states such as those run by Mao, Stalin and you guessed it.. Hitler. He, however, calls present day India as a "Flailing state - one where it fails appallingly when it is needed (such as ensuring health, drinking water, education, law and order) and hyperactive in issues such as tying the citizen in miles or red tape and its 'inspector raj' mentality." He says that the British built sound legal and bureaucractic institutions and a very good civil service. After independence and over time, however, India's leaders did not "modernize or expand the capability of its institutions," which is especially terrible because the country's ambitions increased many-fold. Again, he focuses on excessive red-tape and an outdated bureaucracy (and civil services).

The 'wonders' of the reforms of '91 are then discussed and he makes a claim that captialism has a natural home in a democracy like India because such a system "nurtures entreprenuers and innovation" well and that "many state controlled Chinese companies envy many of India's private firms". However, things like property rights and a nexus between business houses, civil servants and politicians are brought about by poor governance and are especially problematic after the big growth spurt from '91. He says that since India is in transition, this is a great time to unleash reforms in many sectors and bring in good regulators to enforce fair competition.

He says India's political parties cater to a "politics of grievance", basically running on making the voter a 'victim of' one of a number of things rather than focusing on real, big problems. As the middle class expands, however, the number of people who aspire will overtake the number of people who consider themselves victims and so he hopes that higher expectations will drive progress. This politics of expectations existed before, i.e. until 1964 when Nehru died. He claims it reared its head briefly for a couple of years in the late 80's/early 90's and then gave way to the "politics of giveaways" such as the one in Tamil Nadu. He then brings up three concerns in politics ; emergence of family-based political dynasties, criminal politicians and political opposition for the sake of opposition.

Next, he narrows down on the causes of corruption : lack of freedom like the license raj (exists even now for instance in the mining industry);  lack of transparency and incomplete reforms (2G scam) and giveaways/subsidies. Corruption can be controlled if "decision-making is transparent, discretion
is reduced, rent seeking opportunities are removed, punishments handed to guilty officers and if incentives are changed from a seniority system."

He recommends the setting up of a new "secular, liberal political party" in India. Its action points are "to reform key institutions of the government; decentralize power from center to states and from states to local bodies; push agenda for the second round of reforms for better economy and better governance; promote civic education in citizenship; nudge middle-class towards active engagement in citizenship. The last point is emphasized as he wants citizens to be more engaged in their local ward/communities and finally, enter politics. The new party should be transparent in its dealings and be built bottom-up.

In calling for a strong liberal state, he wants a limited state rather than a minimalist state. He was more of laissez-faire man, but seeing india's recent slow down, he things government is not a second order phenomenon but rather one that is first order and is required for sustainability and to regulate. Reminds us of the three pillars and that India got all three during independence, but couldn't handle the pressure on institutions and socialism didn't help at all. License raj is an outcome of socialism and the decline continues till today with crony capitalism. We've become a flailing state - "a weak and intrusive" one. The budding middle class is "held hostage to corruption, poor public services and governance  failure". Demand for governance reform should come out of the growing middle class which should also enter politics and transform institutions crying for change.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Amazing chart on immigration/emigration of researchers

I don't think that much needs to be said about the picture, but here you go anyway..

- Other than Belgium and Denmark (where the US is barely #2), the US is the #1 choice for emigration
- I'd assume China's emigration fraction will be similar to India's, but the striking thing about Indian emigres is that they (we) pretty much flock only to the US, whereas a decent number of Chinese also move to Canada
- Man.. look at those Germans move around !

Linky http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/tech-careers/the-global-brain-trade#.UE_uhs1ViPU.facebook

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Cluster computing on the cloud (by the numbers)

I was recently involved in some consulting work with a small aircraft company and had to look up computing costs on privately owned clouds. I've always pooh-poohed this in the past because it seemed too expensive and cumbersome. The numbers have, however, gotten to a point where a second look is required. The following numbers are for the Amazon cloud and the rest of the vendors are competitive with this:

Usage of 16 cores costs $2.4 / hour and the first GB of data transfer is free.

If you're a bit more serious and are thinking long term, a yearly lease of 16 cores costs $4148 (up front) + $ 0.54 / hr and $0.12/GB. These costs can go down if you're thinking even more big time.

So let's crunch some numbers here... Assuming we need 16 cores at 60% utility over an entire year, the cost comes to $7k + data transfer. For a 3 year lease, it is $15k + data transfer.

96 such cores over 3 years thus cost $90k + data transfer. Unless you're running calcs that you shouldn't be running, data transfer won't be more than $10k, so we're looking at $100k over 3 years.

Compare this with your own 96 core cluster that probably is really useful for only 3 years - It costs $25k not including cooling, power, space and system administration. The last two items are definitely non-trivial. At a place like Stanford (or anywhere else, for that matter) you have to move heaven and earth to carve out space and a system admin costs $200k/year (including benefits - So even assuming that maintaining your cluster constitutes less than 5% of his/her responsibility, we're looking at non-trivial numbers). All said and done, it won't be unfair to put the real cost at $50k over 3 years.

Factor of 2 ? wow! Even if you just consider the cost of your cluster, it is just a factor of 4.

Clouds are here to stay... even from a HPC perspective

Monday, March 19, 2012

A Sense of Scale

Apple's recent announcement of it's cash pile and the California government's much maligned money problems got me thinking about the following numbers:
California:

Population: 39 Million
GDP : $ 2 Trillion
Budget deficit: $10 Billion
Total debt: $ 360 Billion

Apple Inc:

Employees: 60 K
Revenue: $ 110 Billion
Profit : $ 26 Billion
Cash Reserves: $ 100 Billion

Stanford University:

Staff+Students: 20 K
Revenue: $3.8 Billion
Net Inflow: $4.0 Billion
Total Endowment: $ 18 Billion
 
To be continued....

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Energy use and GDP

Per capita electricity use / day
USA : 40 units (of which 36% is residential)
EU : 20 units (35% is residential)
China : 7 units (15% is residential
India : 2.5 units (!) (20% is residential)
World : 8 units (27% is residential)

Take a look at this very interesting graph..  
A good straight-line fit gives us a GDP of 40 cents for every unit of energy (total, not just electricity) consumed.  I know there are some implicit, non causal relationships, but this is a wonderful number to remember.. say for India to reach a per capita GDP of $10000, the annual per capita energy use could be close to 25000 units. Another way of looking at it (a Nobel winning Stanford Prof says this): For (roughly) every dollar spent on energy, you typically generate 4 dollars of GDP.  Quite remarkably, this number is more or less the same across all type of economies including for the big bad US of A. Americans account for 25% of the world's energy consumption and account for 29% of its GDP. In other words, there are no shortcuts, at least so far.


India better be building one nuclear reactor every month for the next 20 years ?

Daily energy use of the world : 360 billion units
Global power consumption : 15 Tera watts
Guy with a plan:  http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Some numbers related to Energy

Energy Densities (Amount of energy released when the given substance completely combusts with oxygen at standard atmospheric conditions)

Coal :          10-24 MJ/kg
Wood :        14 MJ/kg

Gasoline*:    44.2 MJ/kg (31.7 MJ/litre)
Natural gas: 53.9 MJ/kg (0.038 MJ/litre)
LNG          : 53.9 MJ/kg (22 MJ/litre)
Propane     : 50 MJ/kg (25 MJ/litre)
Biogas       : 28 MJ/kg  (7 MJ/litre)
Hydrogen : 119 MJ/kg (8.1 MJ/litre)

Lead-acid batteries : 0.125 MJ/kg
Li-Ion batteries : 0.432 MJ/kg
Alkaline batteries : 0.594 MJ/kg

* Diesel and Kerosene are within 3% of this number

Let's switch to convenient energy units i.e.,  1 unit = 1 kilo watt - hour = 3.6 MJ

So a kg of coal contains roughly 6 units of energy and a litre of Gasoline contains about 8.75 units of energy.

Note that the energy density of the best possible battery is about 100 times less than that of an equivalent mass of gasoline. Of course, electrical energy conversion is much more efficient than thermal energy conversion, but this fact is only going to buy us a factor of 2. In addition to being heavy,  battery electrodes are quite expensive as well. Even though things are improving, you should get a sense of what electric cars are up against.

If you assume that gasoline costs $3.50 / gallon, the price you are paying per unit of energy content comes to 11 cents. This is quite interesting because we pay around 10 cents / unit of residential electricity.

Cost / unit of energy content  (at wholesale prices) :

Coal  :  0.4 cents / unit
Natural gas : 1.5 cents / unit
Crude oil : 5 cents / unit

Note that so far, we've been just talking about energy content in fuels and haven't considered conversion losses. If we take everything into account and go by the wikipedia definition:

Levelized Energy Cost (LEC) is an economic assessment of the cost of the energy-generating system including all the costs over its lifetime: initial investment, operations and maintenance, cost of fuel and cost of capital,  this is what we get

 The chart shows cost / Mega watt - hr, so divide the last column (which is in dollars) by 1000 to get cost / unit of electricity. So according to this chart, conventional sources cost less than 10 cents / unit and land-based wind energy is competitive. Solar energy continues to be off the charts expensive even with all the recent advances.

Coal and natural gas based energy is dirt cheap and the big 3 energy consumers (USA, China and India) have enough reserves to last out this century at least as far as electricity use is concerned. Transportation fuel may be a bit more complicated with the approach of peak oil (and such), but I think gas to liquid technologies will come to the fore. Note that if more stringent emission restrictions are brought in on fossil fuels, wind energy has a good chance to be very viable and Solar can become borderline competitive.

Overall,  the cost of energy continues to be amazingly low considering the fact that the best cyclist in the planet can only give you 0.3 units of energy over an hour and animal labor isn't that much different. Yes! I compared the present situation with the stone age to make you feel better!

Thursday, December 29, 2011

10 Myths about India (International edition): Call centers are very important to India's growth

When the topic of India gets brought up in chatting with my colleagues (and students) or friends (especially the long drawn discussions at the dog park), I frequently start off with "No, in reality, it is not like that.." So I thought I should put some of my points in one place (not in any particular order) to decrease entropy generation:

Myth #2: Call centers are very important to India's growth: Not really!. Out of India's $ 76 billion information technology (IT) industry, services such as call centers, tech support and medical transcription constitute a small fraction of the revenue. India has a healthy and growing IT industry that offers high quality software and consulting services on par with the best in the world. Call centers, on the other hand, account for about 1% of GDP and about 0.1% of the workforce, and since this sector does not involve a high degree of technical skill (I am appreciative of good communication skills) competition from other low cost markets (such as the Philippines) is growing. The state of the IT industry, overall, is better because it is not just dependent on low cost services.  The IT industry has changed some business approaches and social practices and has been very beneficial, but it still measures only up to 7% of  GDP and only recently have some companies started to focus on creating original, innovative products rather than rely on services. In comparison, the engineering industry (including mining and assorted stuff) contributes about 20-25% of the GDP (by some measures) and though traditional industries aren't as "world class" as IT services, specific sectors like automotives are getting there in patches.